Guide · 2 min read
Gold and interest rates: why Fed decisions move XAUUSD
Short answer: Gold pays no interest, so it competes with assets that do. When the market expects higher interest rates after inflation, gold tends to weaken; when it expects lower ones, gold tends to strengthen. Federal Reserve decisions at 2:00 pm New York time change those expectations, which is why gold can move several dollars within seconds of them.
Published: 24 October 2026.
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Interest rates are not the only force on gold, but they are the one with a fixed timetable. Knowing it is the difference between being surprised and being ready.
Why rates matter to a metal
- The cost of holding gold: money in gold earns nothing; money in a safe bond earns interest. The more the bond pays after inflation, the more holding gold costs.
- Real yields: the bond rate minus expected inflation. Gold often moves against them.
- The dollar: higher US rates tend to lift the dollar, and a stronger dollar tends to weigh on gold. See gold and the dollar index.
What happens on a Fed day
- 2:00 pm New York timeThe decision and the statement are published. The first move is often fast, with wide spreads.
- 2:30 pmThe press conference. New words about future meetings can move gold again, sometimes the other way.
- The rest of the dayThe market digests both. The first move is not always the last.
The dates for the year are on our central bank calendar.
Expectations, not the decision
Markets price likely moves before they happen. What moves gold is the gap between what was expected and what came out: the decision, the projections for future rates, and the tone of the press conference. A cut everyone expected can leave gold flat.
Handling the day
- Note the time in your broker's server clock. See gold trading hours.
- Decide in your trading plan whether you hold, cut size or stay out.
- Size any open trade for a jump past the stop with the position size calculator.
- See the other scheduled events in the economic calendar, and how to use it in our calendar guide.
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FAQ
Why do interest rates matter for gold?
Gold pays no interest. When safe assets pay more after inflation, holding gold costs more in income given up, so higher expected real rates tend to weigh on gold and lower ones tend to support it.
When are Federal Reserve decisions announced?
At 2:00 pm New York time on the last day of each scheduled meeting, eight times a year, followed by a press conference at 2:30 pm. The dates are set a year ahead.
Does a rate cut always push gold up?
No. Markets price expected cuts in advance. Gold moves mostly on the surprise: a cut that was fully expected can do little, and a cut with cautious words about the future can even push gold down.
What are real yields?
The interest rate on a bond minus expected inflation. They are the return a saver earns after inflation, and gold often moves in the opposite direction to them.
Why does gold move again during the press conference?
The decision is one number; the press conference adds the reasoning and hints about the next meetings. Those words can change what the market expects and move gold a second time.
Should I hold a gold trade through a Fed decision?
That is your own decision. Spreads widen and price can jump past stops. Decide in your trading plan, before the day, whether you hold, reduce size or stay out.
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The gold day hour by hour, the six forces behind the price and the releases worth a place in your calendar.