Markets
Gold vs the S&P 500
Both markets' returns side by side, how much each moves, how closely they move together, and the history of the ratio between them.
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The Gold Field Guide
1.913
The S&P 500 index divided by the price of an ounce of gold: it rises when shares do better than gold.
Last shared daily close: 26 Oct 2026. Source: Baroq data.
The S&P 500/gold ratio
| A year ago | 1.652 |
|---|---|
| 52-week high | 1.913 26 Oct 2026 |
| 52-week low | 1.290 28 Jan 2026 |
| Where it sits in that range | 100 out of 100 |
| Average of the last 12 months | 1.631 |
| Average of the last 5 years | 2.078 |
Its daily values over the last 12 months, from 1.29 to 1.91.
Both over the last 12 months
Each market's daily close, started at 100 a year ago.
- Gold
- S&P 500
Returns side by side
| Period | Gold | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 week | -3.0% | -0.1% | -2.8 points |
| 1 month | -6.3% | -0.8% | -5.5 points |
| 3 months | -0.9% | +3.7% | -4.6 points |
| 6 months | -14.7% | +7.3% | -21.9 points |
| This year | -7.0% | +12.2% | -19.2 points |
| 1 year | -2.3% | +13.2% | -15.5 points |
| 3 years | +102.4% | +85.6% | +16.7 points |
| 5 years | +124.0% | +68.1% | +56.0 points |
How much each moves
| Measure | Gold | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Volatility, last 20 days | 17.3% a year | 9.8% a year |
| Volatility, last 60 days | 24.1% a year | 9.7% a year |
How closely they move together
The correlation of both markets' daily changes, from −1 (always opposite) to +1 (always together), on 1,998 shared trading days since Jan 2019.
| Period | Correlation | Same direction | In words |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 60 days | +0.41 | 77% | Often together |
| Last year | +0.39 | 65% | Loosely together |
| Last 3 years | +0.20 | 57% | Loosely together |
Year by year
The value at the end of each year with its high and low, both markets' change in the year, and the year's correlation. * this year so far.
| Year | End | High | Low | Gold | S&P 500 | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026* | 1.913 | 1.913 | 1.290 | -7.0% | +12.2% | +0.40 |
| 2025 | 1.586 | 2.269 | 1.505 | +64.6% | +16.4% | -0.00 |
| 2024 | 2.242 | 2.512 | 2.076 | +27.2% | +23.4% | +0.27 |
| 2023 | 2.311 | 2.360 | 1.970 | +13.1% | +24.0% | -0.01 |
| 2022 | 2.108 | 2.662 | 1.980 | -0.3% | -19.6% | +0.19 |
| 2021 | 2.615 | 2.656 | 1.906 | -3.5% | +28.1% | +0.13 |
| 2020 | 1.971 | 2.159 | 1.434 | +24.6% | +15.9% | +0.16 |
| 2019 | 2.117 | 2.307 | 1.858 | no data | no data | -0.24 |
Each market on its own
Descriptive, not a forecast: how two markets moved together in the past says nothing certain about how they move next.
How to read it
- The ratio is worked out from both markets' daily closes, on the days both have one. It shows which of the two did better: it rises when the market on top of the ratio does better than the other.
- Returns compare each market's last close with its close on the start date (or the trading day just before it). Difference is the first market's return minus the second's, in percentage points.
- Volatility is how much the daily changes swing, scaled to a year, over the last 20 and 60 trading days.
- Correlation measures how closely the two markets' daily changes move together: +1 means always together, 0 means no link, −1 means always opposite. Same direction is the share of days both rose or both fell.
- A correlation changes over time: two markets that moved together for a year can drift apart in the next. It describes the past and forecasts nothing.
The correlation in words
| +0.7 to +1.0 | Closely together |
|---|---|
| +0.4 to +0.7 | Often together |
| +0.1 to +0.4 | Loosely together |
| -0.1 to +0.1 | Hardly linked |
| -0.4 to -0.1 | Loosely opposite |
| -1.0 to -0.4 | Often opposite |
Free book · PDF · 6 pages and 1 more
The Gold Field Guide
The gold day hour by hour, the six forces behind the price and the releases worth a place in your calendar.
Data and education only, not investment advice and not a trading signal. Public sources can be late or wrong; check before relying on a number. Past prices do not predict what a market will do. Risk warning · The words on this page, explained