Markets
Bitcoin volatility: how much it moves and when
How much Bitcoin moves in a day, year by year, which months, weekdays and hours it moves most, and where today's volatility sits against the past.
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The Gold Field Guide
Daily prices since May 2021. Source: Baroq data.
Today against its own past
| Volatility, last 20 days | 23.7% a year |
|---|---|
| Average of all 20-day readings | 41.8% a year |
| Calmer than | 89% of readings since May 2021 |
| Average daily range, 14 days | 2.64% |
Year by year
Volatility is a year's daily changes scaled to a year. The biggest rise and fall are the best and worst close-to-close days of the year. * this year so far.
| Year | Volatility | Average daily range | Days moving over 3% | Biggest rise | Biggest fall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026* | 37.2% | 3.30% | 14% | +10.6% 06 Feb | -13.9% 05 Feb |
| 2025 | 35.6% | 3.38% | 17% | +8.9% 02 Mar | -10.0% 03 Mar |
| 2024 | 42.6% | 4.15% | 23% | +9.5% 06 Nov | -8.9% 05 Aug |
| 2023 | 36.4% | 3.33% | 16% | +12.0% 13 Mar | -8.3% 09 Mar |
| 2022 | 55.0% | 4.73% | 25% | +14.8% 19 Jun | -17.2% 09 Nov |
| 2021 | 64.1% | 6.42% | 38% | +14.8% 24 May | -13.2% 23 May |
By month of the year
The average daily range in each calendar month, as a share of the close, over every year in the prices.
| Month | Average daily range | Days moving over 3% |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | 3.98% | 23% |
| Feb | 4.46% | 22% |
| Mar | 4.79% | 31% |
| Apr | 3.89% | 21% |
| May | 4.83% | 20% |
| Jun | 4.73% | 29% |
| Jul | 3.78% | 19% |
| Aug | 3.74% | 23% |
| Sep | 3.59% | 14% |
| Oct | 3.52% | 17% |
| Nov | 4.31% | 23% |
| Dec | 3.83% | 14% |
| Busiest month | May 4.83% a day on average |
|---|---|
| Calmest month | Oct 3.52% a day on average |
By weekday
| Day | Average daily range | Average change of the close |
|---|---|---|
| Monday | 4.94% | 2.44% |
| Tuesday | 4.58% | 2.18% |
| Wednesday | 4.73% | 2.27% |
| Thursday | 4.51% | 2.14% |
| Friday | 4.73% | 2.33% |
By hour of the day
How far the price moves in each hour on average, up or down, by the hour the move started (UTC). Hourly prices from 04 Aug 2026 to 26 Oct 2026.
The biggest hour starts at 14:00 UTC, ±0.48% on average; the calmest starts at 10:00 UTC, ±0.16%.
The full numbers
Descriptive, not a forecast: past volatility says nothing certain about the next day, month or hour.
How to read it
- Volatility is how much the daily changes swing, scaled to a year: 15% means a normal year moves the price about 15% either way. It is worked out from each year's daily changes.
- Average daily range is the average distance from each day's high to its low, as a share of the close. It is bigger than the day's change in the close, because the price usually travels further than it ends up.
- Days moving over a set size counts the days whose close was that far above or below the day before's.
- Calmer than ranks today's 20-day volatility among every 20-day reading since the prices begin: a high share means it is quiet next to its past.
- By hour of the day shows how far the price moves on average in each hour, up or down, by the hour the move started, in UTC. It says when the price tends to move, not which way.
- A busy month or hour in the past can be quiet next time. It describes the past and forecasts nothing.
Free book · PDF · 6 pages and 1 more
The Gold Field Guide
The gold day hour by hour, the six forces behind the price and the releases worth a place in your calendar.
Data and education only, not investment advice and not a trading signal. Public sources can be late or wrong; check before relying on a number. Past prices do not predict what a market will do. Risk warning · The words on this page, explained