Markets
Fed rate odds and the yield curve
What Treasury bills say about the Fed's next decision, the Fed's rate now, and the whole US yield curve today and a month ago.
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The Gold Field Guide
Yield curve of 2026-10-23. Read 38 min ago.
The Fed's target range is 3.75% to 4.00%; the effective rate was 3.88% on 2026-10-23.
Next Fed decision: 2026-10-28
Treasury bills price no change as the most likely outcome, at about 64%.
- No change: 64% (target 3.75-4.00%)
- Hike of 0.25 points: 36% (target 4.00-4.25%)
How: the 1 mo bill yields 4.11%, the average rate over its life. Taking 4.03% (the effective fed funds rate 3.88% and the usual bill gap of +0.15) for the 2 days before the meeting leaves about 4.12% for the time after it, a move of +0.09 points. The move is split between the two nearest quarter-point steps, as the Fed moves in quarter points. Later meetings: 2026-12-09, 2027-01-27, 2027-03-17.
Over the coming year
A bill's yield is roughly the average rate the market expects over its life. Below the Fed's rate means cuts are expected in that time.
| Bill | Yield | vs the Fed rate now | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo | 4.11% | +0.23 | hikes expected |
| 3 mo | 4.22% | +0.34 | hikes expected |
| 6 mo | 4.30% | +0.42 | hikes expected |
| 1 yr | 4.44% | +0.56 | hikes expected |
The US yield curve
What the US government pays to borrow for each length of time. Gold line: 2026-10-23 Grey line: 2026-09-25
- 10-year minus 2-year: +0.31 points, normal: longer loans pay more.
- 10-year minus 3-month: +0.78 points, normal: longer loans pay more.
What moved in a month
- 1 mo+0.07
- 1.5 mo-0.03
- 2 mo-0.04
- 3 mo-0.02
- 4 mo-0.02
- 6 mo-0.03
- 1 yr-0.06
- 2 yr-0.12
- 3 yr-0.19
- 5 yr-0.16
- 7 yr-0.17
- 10 yr-0.17
- 20 yr-0.17
- 30 yr-0.16
| Length | Yield | Change in a month |
|---|---|---|
| 1 mo | 4.11% | +0.07 |
| 1.5 mo | 4.11% | -0.03 |
| 2 mo | 4.16% | -0.04 |
| 3 mo | 4.22% | -0.02 |
| 4 mo | 4.30% | -0.02 |
| 6 mo | 4.30% | -0.03 |
| 1 yr | 4.44% | -0.06 |
| 2 yr | 4.69% | -0.12 |
| 3 yr | 4.75% | -0.19 |
| 5 yr | 4.82% | -0.16 |
| 7 yr | 4.89% | -0.17 |
| 10 yr | 5.00% | -0.17 |
| 20 yr | 5.37% | -0.17 |
| 30 yr | 5.33% | -0.16 |
Good to know
This is an estimate from Treasury bills, not from fed funds futures, which are licensed exchange data. Bills also move with supply, quarter-ends and tax dates, and often sit a little away from the Fed's rate when no change is expected, so treat an outcome under about 20% as "no strong view". Gold tends to like falling real rates, so traders watch this before Fed days.
Source: Baroq data.
Free book · PDF · 6 pages and 1 more
The Gold Field Guide
The gold day hour by hour, the six forces behind the price and the releases worth a place in your calendar.
Data and education only, not investment advice and not a trading signal. Public sources can be late or wrong; check before relying on a number. Past prices do not predict what a market will do. Risk warning · The words on this page, explained