Markets
Nasdaq 100 seasonality: the best and worst months
Which months the Nasdaq 100 rose in most often, how much it moved in each on average, and how the two halves of the year and each quarter went.
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The Gold Field Guide
Daily prices since Jan 2019, 6 full years. Source: Baroq data.
The months at a glance
| Best month on average | Nov +5.3% on average |
|---|---|
| Worst month on average | Sep -1.9% on average |
| Rose most often | Jan 86% of years |
| Rose least often | Feb 38% of years |
| Calmest month | Feb ±3.5% typical swing |
| Biggest swing | Apr ±9.6% typical swing |
Every month, best to worst
Each month's change from the last close of the month before to its own last close, ranked by the average, in %.
| Month | Average | Median | Rose in | Typical swing | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov | +5.3% | +5.1% | 86% | ±4.5% | 7 |
| Jun | +3.7% | +6.3% | 75% | ±5.8% | 8 |
| May | +3.5% | +7.1% | 62% | ±6.8% | 8 |
| Apr | +3.3% | +4.3% | 75% | ±9.6% | 8 |
| Jul | +2.9% | +2.6% | 75% | ±5.8% | 8 |
| Oct | +2.2% | +3.8% | 57% | ±4.0% | 7 |
| Aug | +1.5% | +0.7% | 62% | ±4.9% | 8 |
| Jan | +1.5% | +2.0% | 86% | ±5.7% | 7 |
| Dec | +0.6% | +0.9% | 71% | ±4.9% | 7 |
| Mar | -0.0% | +1.4% | 62% | ±6.5% | 8 |
| Feb | -0.9% | -1.4% | 38% | ±3.5% | 8 |
| Sep | -1.9% | -1.8% | 50% | ±5.6% | 8 |
The two halves of the year
The saying "sell in May" says the months from November to April do better than May to October. Here is how they went, each half compounded year by year.
| Period | Average | Median | Rose in | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November to April | +8.4% | +9.8% | 71% | 7 |
| May to October | +12.2% | +14.4% | 86% | 7 |
The four quarters
| Period | Average | Median | Rose in | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1: January to March | -0.4% | -5.9% | 43% | 7 |
| Q2: April to June | +11.3% | +13.1% | 88% | 8 |
| Q3: July to September | +2.2% | +0.9% | 75% | 8 |
| Q4: October to December | +8.2% | +11.4% | 86% | 7 |
By weekday
| Day | Average change | Rose on | Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | +0.230% | 64% | 400 |
| Tuesday | +0.067% | 51% | 403 |
| Wednesday | +0.139% | 56% | 399 |
| Thursday | -0.010% | 51% | 402 |
| Friday | -0.005% | 53% | 395 |
The full numbers
Descriptive, not a forecast: past months say nothing certain about the next one.
How to read it
- A month's change is the last close of the month against the last close of the month before. Average and median are taken over the years that have the month; the median is the middle year, so one huge year does not move it.
- Rose in is the share of those years the month ended higher. A month can have a high average from one big year and still rise in fewer than half of them.
- Typical swing is how far that month's changes usually sit from their average (the standard deviation). A month with a small average and a big swing says very little.
- The half-years and quarters compound their months' changes year by year, then average the years.
- A handful of years is a small sample. A month that rose in most of them can fall this year. It describes the past and forecasts nothing.
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The Gold Field Guide
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Data and education only, not investment advice and not a trading signal. Public sources can be late or wrong; check before relying on a number. Past prices do not predict what a market will do. Risk warning · The words on this page, explained