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Rolling beta and hedge ratio

How much of one market hedges another? The beta from your prices, window by window, and the hedge size for your position.

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The prices

Closing prices of the market you hold, oldest first. The sample is silver.
The same bars for the market you would hedge with. The sample is gold.
20 bars is about a month of days. Each list needs at least twice the window.
Its value in money, in any currency: the hedge comes out in the same one.

The hedge

Beta of 0.50 over the last 20 bars: to hedge 10,000 held, sell about 5,031 of the second market.

Whole run
0.44 over all 79 bars, with an R squared of 0.08: the second market explains 8% of the first one's swings.
Risk left
A bar-to-bar swing of about 0.72% unhedged, about 0.69% left with the hedge: a poor hedge; most of the risk stays.
Stability
The 20-bar beta ran from -0.02 to 0.80, median 0.40. It moves a lot, so check the hedge size again often.
Read it with care
Beta is measured on the bar-to-bar moves you pasted. Hedge in money value, not in lots or ounces, and size it again when the beta moves.

The 20-bar beta at points through the run, by the bar it ends on, and the hedge it gives for 10,000 held. The latest is marked.

Ends at barBetaHedge
310.808,040
380.333,290
450.222,190
520.121,210
590.545,376
660.414,077
730.767,572
800.505,031

Education only, not investment advice. The answer comes from the numbers you typed in, not from your account or the market. Simulated results are hypothetical and have limits: real trading has slippage, gaps, changing results and emotions. Trading leveraged products can lose money quickly, including all of it. Risk warning

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Educational only, not financial advice; trading involves risk.

How much to hedge, and for how long

Beta says how far one market tends to move for each 1% move in another. Silver with a beta of 1.4 to gold tends to move 1.4% when gold moves 1%, so a hedge needs about 1.4 times the money in gold, on the other side. The R squared says how much of the risk such a hedge can remove; the rest stays. Beta drifts, which is why this page measures it window by window as well as over the whole run.

Turn a beta into futures contracts with the beta hedge calculator, see whether the link itself holds with the rolling correlation calculator, and test a pair for mean reversion with the cointegration test.

Not advice. Arithmetic on the prices you type; past links do not promise future ones.

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