Free risk tools

Drawdown simulator

Two thousand possible futures of your next trades, at your own win rate, reward and size. See how deep a normal losing run goes, how long the streaks get, and the most you can risk a trade and still stay inside your limit.

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Nothing you type is stored

How you trade

Win rate (%)From your journal: winning trades out of all trades, ideally 50 or more.

Reward to riskYour average win divided by your average loss. 1.5 means a win pays 1.5 times what a loss costs.

Risk per trade (%)The share of the account one stop-out costs.

Number of tradesThe trades ahead you want to see, for example a year of them.

Costs per trade (% of the risk)Spread, commission and slippage. A $10 cost on a $200 stop is 5.

Drawdown limit (%)The fall from a high you could live with, or your account's maximum loss.

Risk is a share of

Halve the risk when this far below the high (%)0 for no brake. A brake at 10 trades at half size while the account is 10% or more under its best.

Your next 200 trades

Type in your win rate, reward and risk, and press the button.

Education only, not investment advice. The answer comes from the numbers you typed in, not from your account or the market. Simulated results are hypothetical and have limits: real trading has slippage, gaps, changing results and emotions. Trading leveraged products can lose money quickly, including all of it. Risk warning

Educational only, not financial advice; trading involves risk.

Why the losing streak decides, not the average

An account is ended by its worst stretch: a loss limit, a margin call or a lost nerve. A trader who wins 45% of the time will, over a few hundred trades, almost certainly see eight or more losses in a row. That is not bad luck; it is the normal arithmetic of a coin that lands on losses more often than not. At 1% a trade those eight losses cost about 8%. At 5% a trade they cost a third of the account.

Deep falls are also hard to climb out of. After a 10% fall the account needs 11% to get back; after 20%, 25%; after 50%, 100%. That is why the size of each trade, not the choice of entry, decides most of what a trader keeps.

How to use the answer

Take your win rate and reward from at least 50 real trades, better 200. A handful of trades says little.
Set the drawdown limit to the fall you would really sit through, or your account's maximum loss if it has one.
Risk no more than the "fits your limit" size, then size every trade with the position size calculator and write the rule into your trading plan.

Not advice and not a forecast. The answer is arithmetic on the numbers you type, not a test of a strategy. Baroq's own gold strategies are judged on real prices after costs on the record.