Free risk tools

Edge map

A high win rate can lose money and a low one can earn. Only the pair, win rate and reward to risk after costs, says whether a method has an edge. See where yours sits.

Free, no sign-up On sale: Desk and Desk + Signals. See the plans

Free
No sign-up
Nothing you type is stored

Your numbers

Where you stand

Type in your win rate and reward to risk, and press the button.

Education only, not investment advice. The answer comes from the numbers you typed in, not from your account or the market. Simulated results are hypothetical and have limits: real trading has slippage, gaps, changing results and emotions. Trading leveraged products can lose money quickly, including all of it. Risk warning

Educational only, not financial advice; trading involves risk.

Two numbers, one edge

A method that wins 70% of the time but loses twice what it wins loses money. One that wins 35% of the time but makes three times what it loses earns. The break-even win rate is 1 divided by 1 plus the reward to risk: 50% at 1 to 1, 40% at 1.5, 33% at 2. Costs push every line up, most of all for close stops and small targets.

The win rate itself is a guess until there are enough trades behind it. With 50 trades, a 45% win rate could easily be anywhere from about 31% to 59%. That is why the first job of a journal is to collect trades, not to tune the method.

Put your costs in with the cost check, then the edge into the drawdown simulator to see the risk it can carry.
Compare ways of taking profit, which move both numbers at once, on the scale-out planner.

Not advice and not a forecast. The answer is arithmetic on the numbers you type, not a test of a strategy.