优势地图
扣除成本后的胜率和盈亏比，放在一张地图上。
免费风险工具
目标现实检验
大多数交易者是倒着选风险的：从每个月想赚的钱出发。填写你的目标和真实数字，看看这个目标对你的账户提出了什么要求。
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你的目标和你的数字
目标的要求
这是一个使用典型数字的示例。修改任意一栏即可使用您自己的数字。
The goal asks for more risk than your limit allows. 10% a month needs about 6.67% a trade on average, where the chance of a 20% fall within 12 months is almost certain. Losses compound, so even at that risk the middle month makes only +3.3%. Your limit allows about 0.71% a trade, and there the middle month makes +1.0%.
- Your edge per trade
- +0.07 of the risk after costs, 20 trades a month.
- Risk that fits your limit
- About 0.71% a trade keeps the chance of a 20% fall within 12 months at 1 in 20 or less. There the middle month makes +1.0%: that, not the goal, is the honest number to plan with.
- At the risk the goal needs
- The middle month makes +3.3%; 40% of months reach 10%, 42% lose money. The typical deepest fall over 12 months is 70.9%.
| Risk a trade | Middle month | Months at the goal | Chance of -20% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25% | +0.4% | 0% | 0% |
| 0.5% | +0.7% | 0% | 0% |
| 1% | +1.4% | 6% | 21% |
| 2% | +2.4% | 25% | 85% |
| 3% | +3.2% | 40% | 99% |
| 6.67% | +3.3% | 40% | 100% |
2,000 simulated runs of 12 months of 20 trades, each a win or a loss at your win rate, risk a share of the balance at the time. Hypothetical: real results vary from month to month far more than a steady win rate suggests.
仅供教育用途，不是投资建议。答案来自您输入的数字，而不是来自您的账户或市场。模拟结果是假设性的，且有局限：真实交易有滑点、跳空、变化的胜率和情绪。交易杠杆产品可能很快亏钱，包括全部亏光。风险提示
仅供教育，不是财务建议；交易有风险。
先选风险，再接受结果
一个交易月的收益，等于每笔交易的优势乘以交易笔数，再乘以每笔风险。优势和交易笔数来自你的方法；唯一剩下的旋钮就是风险。所以，一个超出你优势所能支撑的目标，会悄悄变成更大的每笔风险，随之而来的是更深的下跌。
更稳的做法是反过来：选择你的回撤上限允许的风险，然后让每个月顺其自然。有些月份会远高于中间值，许多月份会低于它，还有一些会亏损。稳定的月度数字，不是任何诚实的方法会承诺的东西。
不是建议，不是预测，也不是对任何收益的承诺。答案只是对你输入的数字做算术。