Swap calculator
What holding overnight costs, triple night included.
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Futures fair value calculator
What a futures contract should cost against the spot price, and whether the market price is rich or cheap.
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The contract
The fair value
The fair futures price 90 days out is about 2,373.29, 23.29 above the spot price of 2,350.00.
- The market price
- 2,375.00 is 1.71 above fair, in line with the carry. It prices in about 4.29% a year of carry against your 4%.
- The carry
- 4.00% a year: the interest a buyer saves by holding the futures instead of the metal or the shares, less the income given up.
The fair price at other expiries, with the same rate and income.
| Expiry | Fair price | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days | 2,357.74 | +7.74 |
| 60 days | 2,365.50 | +15.50 |
| 90 days | 2,373.29 | +23.29 |
| 180 days | 2,396.82 | +46.82 |
| 365 days | 2,445.91 | +95.91 |
Education only, not investment advice. The answer comes from the numbers you typed in, not from your account or the market. Simulated results are hypothetical and have limits: real trading has slippage, gaps, changing results and emotions. Trading leveraged products can lose money quickly, including all of it. Risk warning
Educational only, not financial advice; trading involves risk.
Why futures trade above spot
Buying a futures contract instead of the metal itself leaves your cash in the bank until expiry. So the futures price sits above spot by about the interest that cash earns, less any income the asset pays: that gap is the basis, and it shrinks to zero as expiry nears. Gold pays nothing, so its futures usually sit above spot (contango).
A market price far from fair says something else is going on: tight supply, a squeeze, or a different rate than yours. A CFD on a futures contract carries the same basis; one on spot charges it as a daily swap instead, which the swap calculator works out.
Not advice. Arithmetic on the numbers you type; real prices include spreads, fees and delivery terms.
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Baroq never holds your money and never trades for you. Educational only, not financial advice; trading involves risk.