Drawdown simulator
How deep a normal losing run goes at your size.
Free risk tools
Drawdown recovery planner
After a fall, the urge is to trade bigger and win it back. See how long the climb really takes at your numbers, and how often a bigger size reaches the floor before the high.
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- Free
- No sign-up
- Nothing you type is stored
Where you are
Your way back
An example with typical numbers. Change any box to use your own.
Doubling up to win it back makes the floor more likely. At your 0.5% a trade, 59% of futures reach -10% before the high; at 1%, 66%. At 0.25%, 38%.
- The gain you need
- 8.7% to get back from -8%. Falls cost more than they look: -20% needs +25%, -50% needs +100%.
- How long at your size
- The average path needs about 235 trades. 40% of futures are back at the high within 300 trades, and the middle one of those takes 79.
- Room left to the floor
- 2% of the high, about 4 full losses at 0.5% a trade.
| Risk a trade | Back at the high | Floor first | Trades, middle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Half your size: 0.25% | 36% | 38% | 194 |
| Your size: 0.5% | 40% | 59% | 79 |
| One and a half: 0.75% | 35% | 65% | 39 |
| Double: 1% | 34% | 66% | 22 |
2,000 simulated futures of up to 300 trades from where you are, each a win or a loss at your win rate, risk a share of the balance at the time. Futures that are neither back nor at the floor after 300 trades are still climbing. Real losses bunch, so the real floor risk is higher.
Education only, not investment advice. The answer comes from the numbers you typed in, not from your account or the market. Simulated results are hypothetical and have limits: real trading has slippage, gaps, changing results and emotions. Trading leveraged products can lose money quickly, including all of it. Risk warning
Educational only, not financial advice; trading involves risk.
Why sizing up after a fall backfires
A bigger size climbs faster only in the futures that start with wins. In the others it reaches the floor sooner, and the floor is where the account ends. The closer you already are to it, the fewer full losses the bigger size can take.
The steadier way back is the same size or smaller, the same rules, and time. Many professionals cut their size after a fall and restore it only at a new high; the drawdown simulator has a brake for exactly that.
What to do now
- Write your size and stop rules into your trading plan before the next trade.
- Set a daily stop: most deep falls come from a few bad days, not from bad trades.
- Run every trade through the pre-trade check at the size that fits.
Not advice and not a forecast. The answer is arithmetic on the numbers you type, not a test of a strategy.
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Baroq never holds your money and never trades for you. Educational only, not financial advice; trading involves risk.