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Volatility regime calculator

Is the market calm or wild right now, against its own history? The ATR's percentile, its direction, and how to set stop and size for it.

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The bars

Oldest first, at least 24 bars; more bars show what normal is. Three numbers per bar, bars split by semicolons: 2295.6 2282.7 2286.3; 2294.8 2278.4 2281.9

The regime

Volatility is high: the 14-bar ATR, 26.90, ranks above 80% of its readings in these bars, and steady (-2% over 10 bars).

What it means for the trade
Stops need more room than usual: at 2 ATR a stop is 53.81, against 49.61 at the typical ATR. To risk the same money, trade about 0.92× your usual size. Wide swings also mean targets come faster, and slippage is worse.
The range
In these bars the ATR ran from 21.04 to 28.25; the typical (median) reading is 24.80. The last reading is 1.08× the typical one.
Read it with care
Volatility clusters: calm follows calm and wild follows wild, until it doesn't. The percentile only compares with the bars you pasted; more bars give a truer picture of normal.

The close, the 14-bar ATR and the ATR as a share of the close on the last bars. The last bar is marked.

BarClose priceATRATR %
7 ago2,391.5027.451.15%
6 ago2,380.5027.871.17%
5 ago2,399.1027.961.17%
4 ago2,412.5027.331.13%
3 ago2,430.8028.251.16%
2 ago2,427.4028.091.16%
1 ago2,432.4027.041.11%
Last2,443.6026.901.10%

Education only, not investment advice. The answer comes from the numbers you typed in, not from your account or the market. Simulated results are hypothetical and have limits: real trading has slippage, gaps, changing results and emotions. Trading leveraged products can lose money quickly, including all of it. Risk warning

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Educational only, not financial advice; trading involves risk.

The same stop is not the same risk every week

A 20-dollar stop is wide in a quiet week and tight in a wild one. Professional desks size every trade to the current volatility, so a stop-out costs about the same whatever the market is doing. This page ranks the latest average true range against all the readings in your bars, and turns the answer into a stop and a size.

See the ATR itself with the ATR calculator, the bands it makes with the Keltner channel, aim for a set volatility with the volatility target calculator, and size the trade with the position size calculator.

Not advice. Arithmetic on the bars you type; volatility describes the past bars, not the next one.

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