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SafeZone stop

A stop set by the size of the market's own dips and rises, not a fixed distance. Elder's SafeZone, from your bars.

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The bars

Oldest first: high, low, close for each bar, numbers split by spaces, bars by semicolons. With a 10-bar look-back, at least 14 bars. The sample is gold.
Elder suggested about 10 to 20 bars.
How many average dips to leave as room. Elder used 2 to 3.

The SafeZone stops

For the next bar the SafeZone long stop is 2,417.97, 25.63 (1.05%) below the close, and the short stop 2,461.32, 17.72 (0.73%) above it. A trader already short keeps the stop of the bar before, 2,457.25, rather than raise it.

How they are set
The long stop comes from the bar before: its low of 2,425.30 minus 2 times the average dip of 3.67 over its 10-bar window (3 bars made one). The short stop comes from the bar before: its high of 2,438.70 plus 2 times the average rise of 11.31 over its 10-bar window (9 bars made one). Each side takes the tightest of the stops worked out on the last 3 bars.
Since the bar before
The long stop line stayed at 2,417.97. The short stop line rose from 2,457.25 to 2,461.32. In a short trade, keep the stop where it was rather than loosen it.
In these bars
The next bar's low went through the long stop line on 15 of 67 finished bars (22%), and its high through the short stop line on 24 (36%). If that is often, a larger multiple gives more room; if it is rare, a smaller one keeps the stop closer.
Read it with care
The stops come from the size of past dips and rises, not from where the market must turn. A gap can open past a stop, and a hit stop is an exit you planned for, not a signal to trade the other way.

The close and the SafeZone stops for the bar after it (10 bars, 2 times the average). The last bar is marked.

BarClose priceLong stopShort stop
5 ago2,399.102,357.552,419.56
4 ago2,412.502,381.202,421.87
3 ago2,430.802,387.072,421.87
2 ago2,427.402,412.372,435.67
1 ago2,432.402,417.972,457.25
Last2,443.602,417.972,461.32

Education only, not investment advice. The answer comes from the numbers you typed in, not from your account or the market. Simulated results are hypothetical and have limits: real trading has slippage, gaps, changing results and emotions. Trading leveraged products can lose money quickly, including all of it. Risk warning

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Educational only, not financial advice; trading involves risk.

Room for the usual noise

Alexander Elder's SafeZone stop measures the market's own noise. On a long trade, every bar whose low dips below the low before it counts as a penetration; the stop goes a multiple of the average penetration below the latest low, so it leaves room for the dips the market usually makes and no more. Shorts use the rises above the high before. Elder told traders never to lower a long stop or raise a short one. The page keeps the tightest stop of the last 3 bars, which slows the line from loosening, and says when a trader already in should keep the stop before.

Compare it with the chandelier exit and the trailing stop calculator, and size the trade with the position size calculator so a hit stop costs what you planned.

Not advice. Arithmetic on the bars you type; past dips do not promise the size of the next one.

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