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RSI signal test

Do oversold and overbought readings snap back in this market, or keep going? Every RSI extreme in your closes, and what happened next.

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The closes

Oldest first, separated by commas or spaces; the more closes, the more signals to count.
Moves in the RSI; 2 is the short-term classic, 14 the standard.
Below this is oversold; overbought is the same distance from 100 (10 means 90).
How many bars after the signal to measure the move.

The record

The 2-bar RSI is 94.5: overbought (above 90). Extremes have tended to keep going here: fading them has done worse than a random entry, so they look more like momentum.

After oversold
2 times the RSI dropped below 10: 5 bars later the close was higher 0% of the time, -0.61% on average that way. Any 5-bar stretch in these closes ended higher 67% of the time.
After overbought
8 times the RSI rose above 90: 5 bars later the close was lower 25% of the time, -0.02% on average that way. Any 5-bar stretch in these closes ended lower 33% of the time.
Read it with care
A signal counts on the close where the RSI first crosses the level; costs and slippage are left out. 10 finished signals is a small sample. Test more closes, and other markets, before trusting a rate.

The last signals: the RSI when it crossed the level, and the move 5 bars later in the snap-back direction.

BarSignalRSIAfter 5
47 agoOversold7.6-0.67%
43 agoOversold5.7-0.55%
35 agoOverbought94.0-0.16%
24 agoOverbought93.3-0.08%
18 agoOverbought93.7-0.35%
10 agoOverbought90.6-1.90%
4 agoOverbought90.1Too recent
LastOverbought94.5Too recent

Education only, not investment advice. The answer comes from the numbers you typed in, not from your account or the market. Simulated results are hypothetical and have limits: real trading has slippage, gaps, changing results and emotions. Trading leveraged products can lose money quickly, including all of it. Risk warning

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Educational only, not financial advice; trading involves risk.

Oversold is not a buy signal by itself

"Buy when the RSI is oversold" is the first rule most traders learn, and in a strong trend it is often wrong: the RSI can stay low while the price keeps falling. Short-term traders popularised the 2-bar RSI with 10 and 90 levels for quick snap-backs. Whether either works depends on the market and the time frame, so this page counts what the extremes in your own closes did next, and compares that with a random entry.

See the RSI itself with the RSI calculator, its own range with the stochastic RSI, check whether the market trends or reverts with the trend or mean reversion test, and size the trade with the position size calculator.

Not advice. Counts on the closes you type; past signals do not promise how the next one will go.

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Baroq never holds your money and never trades for you. Educational only, not financial advice; trading involves risk.

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