Stop noise check
How often normal wiggle alone reaches your stop.
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Expected move calculator
How far the price usually travels in the days you plan to hold, from its volatility, and how often noise alone reaches your stop or your target.
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The market
The usual move
Over 5 trading days, Gold (XAUUSD) usually moves about ±101.42 (2.54%): two times in three it ends between 3,898.58 and 4,101.42.
- The 95% band
- 3,801.22 to 4,198.78: outside it about one stretch in twenty, more often around news.
- A usual day
- ±45.36 (1.13%) at 18% a year.
The usual move and the 95% band for other horizons, at the same volatility.
| Horizon | Usual move | In % | 95% band |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | ±45.36 | 1.13% | 3,911.10 to 4,088.90 |
| 5 days (yours) | ±101.42 | 2.54% | 3,801.22 to 4,198.78 |
| 21 days | ±207.85 | 5.20% | 3,592.62 to 4,407.38 |
A bell-curve estimate from the volatility you typed. Real markets have fatter tails: gaps and news days go past the 95% band more often than one in twenty.
Education only, not investment advice. The answer comes from the numbers you typed in, not from your account or the market. Simulated results are hypothetical and have limits: real trading has slippage, gaps, changing results and emotions. Trading leveraged products can lose money quickly, including all of it. Risk warning
Educational only, not financial advice; trading involves risk.
Volatility grows with the square root of time
A market's volatility is quoted for a year. Over a shorter stretch the usual move is that figure times the square root of the share of the year: a week (5 of about 252 trading days) is about 14% of the yearly move, a day about 6%. Gold at 18% a year and 4,000 usually moves about 45 in a day and 100 in a week. A stop closer than a usual day is often hit by noise, whatever the idea behind the trade.
The figure here is a starting point. Check the realised volatility on the volatility page, the size that fits your stop with the position size calculator, and how often noise reaches a stop measured in ATRs with the stop noise check.
Not advice. The answer is arithmetic on the volatility you type, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Next tools
Daily range check
How much of an average day is used, and the room left.
Position size calculator
The lot size at which a stop-out costs the amount you chose.
Pricing
Three ways in. Pick yours.
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Baroq never holds your money and never trades for you. Educational only, not financial advice; trading involves risk.