Position size calculator
The lot size at which a stop-out costs the amount you chose.
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Stop noise check
A stop that sits inside the market's normal wiggle gets hit on good ideas and bad ones alike. See how often noise alone would reach yours.
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Your trade
Your stop and the noise
Outside most of the noise. A stop 3.9 ATRs away is touched by normal wiggle alone in about 7% of trades held 12 bars. A stop-out here more often means the move went against you.
- Your stop in ATRs
- 23.33 away with an ATR of 6: 3.89 ATRs.
- When noise usually gets there
- Half of all random paths have touched your stop after about 85 bars.
- Target first, with no edge
- With a target 12 away, pure chance reaches it first in 66% of trades. Your win rate has to beat 66% (plus costs) before this setup earns anything: that is the break-even line at 0.51 to 1.
| Stop | Distance | Noise reaches it | Size vs yours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 ATR | 3 | 82% | 7.78x |
| 1 ATR | 6 | 64% | 3.89x |
| 1.5 ATR | 9 | 49% | 2.59x |
| 2 ATR | 12 | 36% | 1.94x |
| 3 ATR | 18 | 17% | 1.30x |
| 3.9 ATR | 23.33 | 7% | 1.00x |
| 4 ATR | 24 | 6% | 0.97x |
The price here has no direction and no edge, so these are the stop-outs you would get from wiggle alone. Real prices trend, gap and cluster their wild hours, so treat the numbers as a floor for stop-outs, not a forecast.
Education only, not investment advice. The answer comes from the numbers you typed in, not from your account or the market. Simulated results are hypothetical and have limits: real trading has slippage, gaps, changing results and emotions. Trading leveraged products can lose money quickly, including all of it. Risk warning
Educational only, not financial advice; trading involves risk.
Noise grows with time
Over one bar the price wanders about one ATR. Over four bars it wanders about twice that, over sixteen bars four times: the wiggle grows with the square root of time. So a stop that is safe for a quick scalp can sit deep inside the noise for a trade held all day. Either the stop widens with the holding time, or the holding time shrinks to fit the stop.
Widening the stop is not free risk: at the same money at risk the size shrinks in step, which the table shows. And a wider stop with the same target lowers the reward to risk, so the win rate has to rise to keep the edge.
- Turn the stop into a lot size with the position size calculator, which can also set the stop from the ATR.
- Gold's quiet and busy hours are on the best time to trade gold, and how much it moves on gold volatility.
Not advice and not a forecast. The answer is arithmetic on the numbers you type, not a test of a strategy.
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Win rate and reward to risk, after costs, on one map.
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What a jump past your stop would cost, and the size that fits.
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Three ways in. Pick yours.
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Baroq never holds your money and never trades for you. Educational only, not financial advice; trading involves risk.